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Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Apr 1

Oil, War and the Global Economy: The Market's Narrative in March 2026

Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its upsides and downsides. The month started with a war in the Middle East, which quickly percolated into soaring oil prices and dropping stock prices, but the overwhelming factor was uncertainty about almost every dimension of the war - how long it would last, what permanent changes to oil prices…

Dan Primack·Mar 31

Private equity's next step into 401(k)s

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Mar 24

Finding your investing lodestar: In Search of an Investment Philosophy

When uncertainty roils markets, as is the case right now, it is natural for investors to get knocked off balance, a when off-balance, to make investment decisions that they often regret later. It is during those times that it helps to have a core set of beliefs about markets, and an investment philosophy that reflects those beliefs. You may not be able to mend the damage to your portfolio, but…

Dan Primack·Mar 20

What we know, and still don't know, about Jeff Bezos' big plans to apply AI to manufacturing

Dan Primack·Mar 18

The White House won't answer questions about a $10 billion payment that was apparently required to secure the TikTok sale. Neither will the buyers nor TikTok itself. It's unprecedented. And…

The White House won't answer questions about a $10 billion payment that was apparently required to secure the TikTok sale. Neither will the buyers nor TikTok itself. It's unprecedented. And officially undisclosed. U.S. investors and biz leaders should want answers. www.axios.com/2026/03/18/t...

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Mar 15

The Price of Risk: An Equity Risk Premium Monologue!

I start my valuation classes with a question of whether valuation is an art or a science, and I argue that it is neither; it does not have the precision that characterizes a science and unlike an art, it does come with principles that constrain you on what you can and cannot do. I describe valuation as a craft, where you learn as you value companies, and in the process, there are times where you…

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Mar 4

AI Scenarios: From Doomsday Destruction to Do-Nothing Bots!

When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three years since, AI has taken on an outsized role not just in markets, but also in our lives. For much of the time, the AI story has been told by its advocates and its salespeople, and the companies in the AI ecosystem have benefited. Not surprisingly, given that its narrators benefit from this growth…

Dan Primack·Mar 2

Today's newsletter: The Dept of Whoa vs. Anthropic

Dan Primack·Feb 26

Trump spoke for 108 minutes on Tuesday night. Mentioned AI only twice. Less than 2% of his wordcount. Elected officials are largely ignoring a revolution that will change all Americans' lives and…

Trump spoke for 108 minutes on Tuesday night. Mentioned AI only twice. Less than 2% of his wordcount. Elected officials are largely ignoring a revolution that will change all Americans' lives and jobs, well beyond electricity prices. www.axios.com/2026/02/26/t...

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Feb 24

Data Update 8 for 2026: Time for Harvesting

In the data update posts this year, I have wended my way from the macro (equities collectives, the bond market and other asset classes) to the micro, starting with hurdle rates and returns in posts five and six and the debt/equity choice in my seventh post. In this post, I will look at the decision by businesses on how much cash to return to their owners, and in what form (dividends or…

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Feb 20

Data Update 7 for 2026: Debt and Taxes

In my fifth data update, I examined hurdle rates in 2025, and in my sixth data update, I looked at the profitability and return metrics for firms. Both hurdle rates and profitability metricsmcan be affected by how much debt companies choose to have in their financing structure, and it enters explicitly into my cost of capital calculations, both through the costs of equity/debt and the mix of the…

Dan Primack·Feb 17

Teachers unions think Apollo may have misled folks back in 2021 about its Epstein ties. Published this 2+ hours ago. Still no comment from Dechert, which did the investigation.

Teachers unions think Apollo may have misled folks back in 2021 about its Epstein ties. Published this 2+ hours ago. Still no comment from Dechert, which did the investigation. www.axios.com/2026/02/17/e...

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Feb 16

Data Update 6 for 2026: In Search of Profitability!

Crass and mercantile though this may sound, the end game for a business is to make money, and a business that fails this simple test cannot survive for long, no matter how noble its social mission, how great its products and how much it is loved by its customers and employees. In this post, I start with a defense of this mercantile objective, and argue that attempts to expand it to incorporate…

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Feb 5

Data Update 5 for 2026: Risk and Hurdle Rates

In my first four posts, I looked at markets - equity, debt and collectibles - in the aggregate performed in 2025. In this post, I turn my attention to divergences in risk across companies, looking at alternative measures of risk, some based on prices and others at earnings, and how these differences play out in hurdle rates, a necessary ingredient for businesses trying to determine whether and…

Dan Primack·Feb 4

This could be the biggest week for IPOs in five years

Dan Primack·Feb 2

Elon Musk's grand vision comes into focus with SpaceX-xAI deal

Axios·Feb 2

Elon Musk is making one of the most audacious moves in the history of business and tech, @danprimack.bsky.social writes.

Dan Primack·Feb 2

So much talk about how AI could disrupt white-collar work. Not nearly enough on how it also could take blue-collar jobs.

Axios·Feb 2

It's impossible to know how many blue-collar jobs could be rendered irrelevant, or how soon, @danprimack.bsky.social writes.

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Feb 2

Data Update 4 for 2026: The Global Perspective!

If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one, because you found them long and boring. I won't take issue with you either if you viewed them as too US-focused, because I did spend my second data update, looking at US equities, and my third, examining US treasuries and the US dollar. In this post, I widen my data analysis to look at the rest of the…

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Jan 28

Data Update 3 for 2026: The Trust Deficit - Bonds, Currencies, Gold and Bitcoin!

In my last post, I talked about the disconnect between the bad news stories that we were reading and the solid performance of US equities during 2025. In this one, I want to focus specifically on four news stories from last year - the US announcement of punitive tariffs on the rest of the world, the downgrade of the US, the longest shutdown in US government history and unprecedented challenges…

Musings on Markets — Aswath Damodaran·Jan 23

Data Update 2 for 2026: Equities get tested, and pass again!

It was a disquieting year , as political and economic news stories shook the foundations of the post-war economic order, built around global trade and the US dollar. In fact, if you had been read just the news all through the year, and were shielded from financial markets, and been asked what stocks did during the year, you would have guessed, based on the news, that they had a bad year. You…

Dan Primack·Jan 21

U.S. stocks performed worse during the first year of President Trump's second term than during the same period of his first term. The S&P 500 also underperformed the first year of the Biden and…

U.S. stocks performed worse during the first year of President Trump's second term than during the same period of his first term. The S&P 500 also underperformed the first year of the Biden and Obama presidencies. www.axios.com/2026/01/21/t...

Calculated Risk·Jan 12

This is the End and a New Beginning

I've been thinking about this for some time. After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I've decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog. However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I'll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each week (via a newsletter - see below). This will have three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a…

Calculated Risk·Jan 12

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are down 16 and DOW futures are down 104 (fair value). WTI futures at $59.37 per barrel and Brent at $63.60 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices…

Calculated Risk·Jan 11

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025. It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 January The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 January. ... 28 December 2025 through 3 January 2026 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024 and…

Calculated Risk·Jan 10

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

Calculated Risk·Jan 10

Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026

The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. ----- Monday, January 12th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 13th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. Consumer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3%…

Calculated Risk·Jan 9

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined. Here is the…

Calculated Risk·Jan 9

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.5 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.3 trillion. Click on graph for larger image. Net worth…