Margin debt growth slows sharply as stock market warning signs build
Slowing margin-debt growth could signal growing risks for stocks.
Bullish
The wire
Live news feed
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Tuesday links: being distinctly human
When the Fed doesn't move tomorrow the US will still have among the highest real policy rates of any of the major central banks in the world--a turnaround from the past when we tended to be on the…
When the Fed doesn't move tomorrow the US will still have among the highest real policy rates of any of the major central banks in the world--a turnaround from the past when we tended to be on the low end. Due to a combo of our strong growth & inflationary pressures.
Bullish
World Bank's Banga: Availability of capital 'not really an issue' as AI demand drives up borrowing costs
World Bank President Ajay Banga came on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Oct. 27, 2026.
One week out, prediction markets see Democrats as favored to sweep Congress
Event contract exchanges see a two-in-three chance that Democrats take control of both the House and Senate.
Fed expected to hold rates steady, but Warsh may point way to more hikes
Markets overwhelmingly expect no change in benchmark interest rates following September's increase.
Fed rate hikes are coming, but not this week: CNBC survey
The CNBC Fed Survey shows that 93% of respondent expect a pause at the Federal Reserve meeting taking place this week.
Research links: fundamental explanations
Tuesdays are all about academic (and practitioner) literature at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s edition including a look at...
Durable goods orders (the high frequency way to measure investment) were on the slightly strong side--but also a touch below forecast. Econvitals updated composite GDP tracker is unchanged--still…
Durable goods orders (the high frequency way to measure investment) were on the slightly strong side--but also a touch below forecast. Econvitals updated composite GDP tracker is unchanged--still 3.2% for Q3 GDP. Actual GDP numbers out on Thursday.
Bullish
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: PayPal, Corning, UPS, Coca-Cola & more
These are the stocks posting the largest moves in early trading.
Can You Count on Social Security in Retirement?
A few weeks ago, this tweet set off a firestorm on Twitter/X: JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US boomers overwhelmingly support higher taxes on younger workers to maintain current Social Security benefits, poll shows. After the usual boomer bashing, the conversation quickly turned to a question I often get from younger readers: Can I count on Social Security in retirement? It's a fair question. If you're in your…
Anthropic S-1, The Cost of Compute, Who Is Paying?
Anthropic's IPO is finally here; the core business is very profitable, but competition may eat all of the profits, even as investors are set up for endless dilution.
Bullish
Roundup #90: In which Noah joins a Japanese VC firm
The humanities; Data center crowd-out; Chinese local governments; AI and capitalism; How Japan builds; Phones bad; Chinese manufacturing; Rent control
The decline of German manufacturing
The second China shock is top of the agenda among European manufacturing businesses and in political circles.
Neutral
Last yr the Fed projected 1 cut this year. Instead we're going to end up with 1 or 2 hikes, well below what the Fed's implicit reaction function would call for. But if you're OK writing off ~0.5pp…
Last yr the Fed projected 1 cut this year. Instead we're going to end up with 1 or 2 hikes, well below what the Fed's implicit reaction function would call for. But if you're OK writing off ~0.5pp of inflation as transitory then they're right on target.
Bearish
Prediction market traders say an Anthropic IPO is near-certain this year after company filed with SEC
Anthropic on Monday filed its Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
I've seen speculation AI anxieties are behind negative sentiment. Zero evidence for that: 1. Negativity pre-dates AI. 2. People much more negative about prices than jobs. 3. Negativity same across…
I've seen speculation AI anxieties are behind negative sentiment. Zero evidence for that: 1. Negativity pre-dates AI. 2. People much more negative about prices than jobs. 3. Negativity same across education/age/income groups 4. Negativity much worse in US but AI is everywhere.
📉 A price drop is a price drop, and we're here for ALL of them! Our latest? Naratriptan HCl 1mg (generic for Amerge) just got a 7% price drop! 💊 9 tablets 💰 Was: $12.83 🎉 Now: $11.86
📉 A price drop is a price drop, and we're here for ALL of them! Our latest? Naratriptan HCl 1mg (generic for Amerge) just got a 7% price drop! www.costplusdrugs.com/medications/... 💊 9 tablets 💰 Was: $12.83 🎉 Now: $11.86
Bearish
Analysis: Why a $2 trillion deficit and 5% Treasury yields are becoming America's biggest economic challenge
Treasury yields above 5% are raising borrowing costs for households and the federal government, highlighting the challenge of financing $2 trillion deficits.
People in rich countries are unhappy. In the US they're truly miserable. Sentiment fell more in the US since 2019 than any other country. US sentiment at the 0th percentile of pre-COVID history…
People in rich countries are unhappy. In the US they're truly miserable. Sentiment fell more in the US since 2019 than any other country. US sentiment at the 0th percentile of pre-COVID history, others generally around 25th percentile. And our economy doing better than most!
Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Lockheed Martin, JetBlue, CoreWeave, Surgery Partners & more
These are some of the stocks posting the largest moves midday.
Talk Your Book: Beyond Bonds in Retirement
On today's Talk Your Book we speak with Matt Kaufman from Calamos about generating income in your portfolio outside of bonds, alternative yields sources, how to spend more money in retirement, creating a sustainable withdrawal strategy and more. The post Talk Your Book: Beyond Bonds in Retirement appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
Nice earnings forecasts you have. Shame if something happened to them
Greetings from Asia where I currently am on a business trip.
The End of the Internet
The old Internet, where anyone could host a server is over, but it's just the final blow in an ending that has been coming for years. The future, though, is brighter than it appears.
Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises: lending conditions tightened
Building DACCS the right way
Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS), the technology to remove CO2 from the air and store it underground, is a controversial technology, mostly because it is unclear if it ever works at reasonable cost and scale.
Frank Elderson: Taking action for nature – investing in economic resilience and prosperity
What If This is the Worst Time to Retire?
I talked to Christine Benz about the many challenges involved in retirement planning. The post What If This is the Worst Time to Retire? appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
Thousands signed up for Econvitals! But some tried & failed. If you're one: 1. Try again, an overactive anti-bot filter was rejecting some, it's been fixed 2. Type correctly. (e.g., the Ian…
Thousands signed up for Econvitals! But some tried & failed. If you're one: 1. Try again, an overactive anti-bot filter was rejecting some, it's been fixed 2. Type correctly. (e.g., the Ian McFarland.orgp & gmaol.com who tried) 3. Check spam for confirmation https://econvitals.org/subscribe/