Is Buying a House Now a Bad Investment?
Housing is not an investment. The post Is Buying a House Now a Bad Investment? appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
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Thursday links: voting share design
Analysis: Kevin Warsh is keeping Wall Street guessing. It may be his most powerful tool
The new chairman made clear he leans toward higher interest rates, but left himself options depending on how the data comes in.
1. AI should play a large role before we see anything from anyone so it comes out right in the first place. 2. AI should play a big role in retrospective replications. 3. Piketty-Saez-Zucman work…
1. AI should play a large role before we see anything from anyone so it comes out right in the first place. 2. AI should play a big role in retrospective replications. 3. Piketty-Saez-Zucman work has many flaws that all go one direction. Spreading slop hurts all three causes.
Two Entities Charged in $130 Million Fraud Scheme That Used False SEC Filings to Boost Investor Confidence
The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged two foreign-operated, Colorado-incorporated entities, BG Wealth Sharing Ltd and DSJ Exchange Pty Ltd, for orchestrating a fraud scheme that used false SEC filings to boost confidence in their…
Bearish
Piero Cipollone: Next-day securities settlement, tokenisation and the transformation of Europe’s financial infrastructure
The politics of President Lagarde's European Central Bank early exit
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will step down on Feb. 7 next year, she announced Thursday.
European Central Bank keeps key interest rate on hold at 2.5%
Markets saw the decision as a hawkish pause and were last pricing in a 67% chance of a December rate hike.
BEA has quarterly GDP data back to 1947. Of the 318 quarters it tracks this was the third most negative contribution from net exports (and the second largest was 2025-Q1). That is, much of the…
BEA has quarterly GDP data back to 1947. Of the 318 quarters it tracks this was the third most negative contribution from net exports (and the second largest was 2025-Q1). That is, much of the consumption, investment, etc was imported--so take 3.3pp of GDP off what those added.
Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement (with Q&A)
Longform links: inefficient interactions
Thursdays are all about longform links on Abnormal Returns. Wherever possible, free links for premium sites are used. You can check out...
Monetary policy decisions
Very strong GDP numbers, a touch higher than expected. More later from me, for now you can read @econvitals.org
Bullish
Inflation came in pretty much as expected which is, well, quite high. In Econvitals charts the solid dots are compared to what people thought yesterday, those are all close to zero. The hollow…
Inflation came in pretty much as expected which is, well, quite high. In Econvitals charts the solid dots are compared to what people thought yesterday, those are all close to zero. The hollow circles are absolute, those are all quite high.
Bullish
Kalshi valuation jumps to $40 billion in latest funding round
The prediction market platform one year ago was valued at $5 billion.
Bullish
An Interview with Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar About the AI Religious War
An interview with Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar about AI diffusion and safety, forward-deployed engineer, and what the battle in tech is actually about.
ECB President Lagarde to step down on 7 February 2027
A golden age of science is coming
AI can do things humans researchers can’t, even in groups.
'I live with a ghost' - inside the haunted homes attracting bargain hunters
Properties where someone has died in tragic circumstances can have big reductions in price.
The one-eyed among the blind
Long-term bond yields have increased substantially since 2025 and there is increasing concern that these rising long-term bond yields may reflect fears about the solvency of countries like the US, Japan and others.
Bearish
If you believe that mindless AI evaluations are legitimate then why would you spread the evaluation of Saez & @gabrielzucman.bsky.social without first subjecting it to its own mindless AI…
If you believe that mindless AI evaluations are legitimate then why would you spread the evaluation of Saez & @gabrielzucman.bsky.social without first subjecting it to its own mindless AI evaluation? I just did and it turns out the critic's errors all go in one direction.
Here are five key takeaways from the Fed rate decision and Warsh news conference
Even though the interest-rate vote went as expected, there were a few surprises out of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Big data day tomorrow. First look at GDP for Q3--Econvitals Composite is reading 3.2%. And PCE inflation for September. Econvitals tracking: PCE: 0.51% MoM / 3.6% YoY Core PCE: 0.32% MoM / 3.1% YoY
Bessent says 'not necessarily' a mistake if the Fed hikes again
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined CNBC for an interview on Oct. 28, 2026.
Bond investor Jeff Gundlach on Fed's rate pause: 'What are you waiting for?'
The DoubleLine founder spoke with CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Wednesday after the Fed held interest rates steady.
Fed holds rates steady despite concerns over inflation
Two of the 12 Federal Open Market Committee voters dissented from the decision. Both wanted to raise rates by a quarter percentage point.
Bullish
I have long thought the Fed spends too much time on the immediate and not nearly enough time thinking about longer-term strategy. Great move by Chair Warsh to devote one meeting to strategy next…
I have long thought the Fed spends too much time on the immediate and not nearly enough time thinking about longer-term strategy. Great move by Chair Warsh to devote one meeting to strategy next year and two the following year.
Same prescription. Same local pharmacy. A better price! 💰 When was the last time you compared what you're paying for your prescriptions? With teamcubancard.com, you can search clear, upfront prices…
Same prescription. Same local pharmacy. A better price! 💰 When was the last time you compared what you're paying for your prescriptions? With teamcubancard.com, you can search clear, upfront prices on 2,400+ medications and find savings on prescriptions at participating pharmacies nationwide.