The wire
138 headlines collected and scored. Last update 4h ago.
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data for September and October today, but we are still missing November data. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red). Total starts…
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the…
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Earlier: December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and…
From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph…
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%. Housing Starts for September and October. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January) • At 12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the…
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast that payrolls rose 70k (vs. 55k consensus) in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% (vs. 4.5%…
From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 Trends The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to December 2024. The December index is up 0.1% month over month. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The Manheim index…
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in October, down $18.8 billion from $48.1 billion in September, revised. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Exports increased and imports decreased in October. Imports increased sharply…
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 27, 2024 when it was 210,250. The…
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 205K, up from 199K.
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995. It will be close! Even if sales beat 2024 sales, these will be the two lowest sales years since 1995. Sales will be worse than any year during the housing bust. In December, sales in these early…
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 54.4% December 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, say the nation’s purchasing and supply…
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. emphasis…
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 4.4% “Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. This was below the consensus forecast of 50,000 jobs added. The BLS will report on Friday…
From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2026. The results include an adjustment for the holidays. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index…
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data. ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 50,000, up from -32,000 jobs added in November. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS. ISM Services…
The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024. Click on graph for larger image. Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs". Then sales were depressed in May and June. Sales were…
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales were at 311 thousand SAAR in December, down from 336 thousand in November, and down 32.5% from 461…