The wire
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BEA has quarterly GDP data back to 1947. Of the 318 quarters it tracks this was the third most negative contribution from net exports (and the second largest was 2025-Q1). That is, much of the consumption, investment, etc was imported--so take 3.3pp of GDP off what those added.
Inflation came in pretty much as expected which is, well, quite high. In Econvitals charts the solid dots are compared to what people thought yesterday, those are all close to zero. The hollow circles are absolute, those are all quite high.
Long-term bond yields have increased substantially since 2025 and there is increasing concern that these rising long-term bond yields may reflect fears about the solvency of countries like the US, Japan and others.
Even though the interest-rate vote went as expected, there were a few surprises out of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined CNBC for an interview on Oct. 28, 2026.
The DoubleLine founder spoke with CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Wednesday after the Fed held interest rates steady.
Two of the 12 Federal Open Market Committee voters dissented from the decision. Both wanted to raise rates by a quarter percentage point.
I have long thought the Fed spends too much time on the immediate and not nearly enough time thinking about longer-term strategy. Great move by Chair Warsh to devote one meeting to strategy next year and two the following year.
The statement upgraded the economy and left the door wide open for rate hikes. 10-Year Treasury yield kneejerk jumps.
This is a comparison of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee statement with the one issued after the Fed's previous policymaking meeting in September.
The U.K. budget cuts household energy costs, raises taxes on banks and directs billions toward defense, Ukraine and artificial intelligence
When the Fed doesn't move tomorrow the US will still have among the highest real policy rates of any of the major central banks in the world--a turnaround from the past when we tended to be on the low end. Due to a combo of our strong growth & inflationary pressures.
Markets overwhelmingly expect no change in benchmark interest rates following September's increase.
The CNBC Fed Survey shows that 93% of respondent expect a pause at the Federal Reserve meeting taking place this week.
Durable goods orders (the high frequency way to measure investment) were on the slightly strong side--but also a touch below forecast. Econvitals updated composite GDP tracker is unchanged--still 3.2% for Q3 GDP. Actual GDP numbers out on Thursday.
Last yr the Fed projected 1 cut this year. Instead we're going to end up with 1 or 2 hikes, well below what the Fed's implicit reaction function would call for. But if you're OK writing off ~0.5pp of inflation as transitory then they're right on target.
Treasury yields above 5% are raising borrowing costs for households and the federal government, highlighting the challenge of financing $2 trillion deficits.
On today's Talk Your Book we speak with Matt Kaufman from Calamos about generating income in your portfolio outside of bonds, alternative yields sources, how to spend more money in retirement, creating a sustainable withdrawal strategy and more. The post Talk Your Book: Beyond Bonds in Retirement appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
A way to summarize and aggregate the latest data flow. Two dimensions: (1) How is the data relative to what happened in the past? How is it compared to what was expected the day before release? (2) Activity and inflation.