The wire
207 headlines collected and scored. Last update 3h ago.
My favorite new proprietary measure is "Econvitals Underlying Unit Labor Costs". It blends five wage measures (weighted by inverse variance), re-means to match PCE and adjusts for how productivity growth different in this cycle than the past. Consistent with ~2% inflation now.
Big news financial account heads! The Fed finally got rid of attributing hedge fund transactions to households in the financial accounts!!! cc/ @peark.es @weisenthal.bsky.social @matt-levine.bsky.social @conorsen.bsky.social @bencasselman.bsky.social www.federalreserve.gov/releases/efa...
As AI & chip stocks tanked, investors shifted from the “AI trade” to the “safe-haven trade” and bid up Treasuries.
The comments from Federal Reserve Presidents Alberto Musalem and Lorie Logan offer the first morsels of insight into what leaders at the Fed see happening next.
The Securities and Exchange Commission took another step forward today to assist broker-dealers and other market participants on the path to central clearing of U.S. Treasury securities by issuing exemptive relief related to inter-affiliate repo…
This generation of inflation-protected long-term tax-advantaged buy-and-forget savings products is more appealing than those of the past 20 years.
Higher cocoa and sugar prices are fueling above-average cost inflation for candy
Wages and salaries, adjusted for inflation, were down 0.6 percent in September from a year earlier. Lots of talk about the "divide" between sentiment and data, but it doesn't seem hard to understand why people are unhappy when their pay is declining in real terms.
The strongest dove case on inflation is that everything in the labor market looks like what you would expect in a ~2% inflation world with inflation falling not rising. Next I'll add my favorite series into the Econvitals emails and threads on this: ex incentive pay.
The euro zone showed surprising resilience, but weak productivity, industrial competitiveness challenges and demographic pressures remain, analysts said.
But the trade deficit worsened, driven by the AI boom. And the drunken sailors in Washington pushed the Debt-to-GDP ratio to 121.7%.
The personal consumption expenditures price index was projected to increase 0.5% in September for an annual rate of 3.7%, according to the Dow Jones consensus.
The new chairman made clear he leans toward higher interest rates, but left himself options depending on how the data comes in.
The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged two foreign-operated, Colorado-incorporated entities, BG Wealth Sharing Ltd and DSJ Exchange Pty Ltd, for orchestrating a fraud scheme that used false SEC filings to boost confidence in their…
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will step down on Feb. 7 next year, she announced Thursday.
Markets saw the decision as a hawkish pause and were last pricing in a 67% chance of a December rate hike.
BEA has quarterly GDP data back to 1947. Of the 318 quarters it tracks this was the third most negative contribution from net exports (and the second largest was 2025-Q1). That is, much of the consumption, investment, etc was imported--so take 3.3pp of GDP off what those added.
Inflation came in pretty much as expected which is, well, quite high. In Econvitals charts the solid dots are compared to what people thought yesterday, those are all close to zero. The hollow circles are absolute, those are all quite high.
Long-term bond yields have increased substantially since 2025 and there is increasing concern that these rising long-term bond yields may reflect fears about the solvency of countries like the US, Japan and others.
Even though the interest-rate vote went as expected, there were a few surprises out of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.